Do you lose money betting or barely break even on horse races?

Are you good thoroughbred handicapper?


Would you like to know why the answer for many of us is yes to both questions?



The short answer is simple, speed figures. So now all the hard you put into handicapping races is all demolished by anyone who has four dollars for a racing form. I will develop this a little later, but first I would like to reminisce about the good old days before Andrew Beyer came out with the first nationally published speed figures. When I first started going to the races back in the late 70's and early 80's finding overlays were plentiful. Most of the public were basically guessing which horse would win and the hours I put in was richly rewarded. I put myself through college and even started a business with the money I won from the track. Back then I was not even shocked by the price that some horses to paid because it was so common.


The reason those days are not possible anymore is because accurate speed figures have deluded the odds so much that it is almost impossible to beat the takeout. It is not that the patrons put any more effort into handicapping the races, but with the use of speed figures it made their guesses much better. Let's use poker as an example of what I am saying. I am sure most of you can name several professional poker players. Can you name one professional thoroughbred handicapper? There are some and I will tell you how they do it later, but back to our poker analogy. Let's change the rake in poker (3% to 5%) to the (18% to 25%) takeout at the track. Now name the professional poker players. I assure you the list would go to almost none. We will stay with poker for just one more moments. This time we will leave the rake the same although you now have to shows the other players one of your hole cards. Again with the additional information we just supplied to the other players it now makes it almost impossible for you to win. This is basically what speed figures did to the sports of thoroughbred horse racing.


There are still a few professional thoroughbred handicappers that make their living betting horses. Probably the most common method used by these professionals is to bet millions of dollars a year at a site that offers a rebate on the dollars they bet. Their ROI is +/- 2 or 3%, but with a 7% to 10% rebate it is easy to see how you can make a comfortable living if you have millions to bet. Another method a few use is to bet the big carryovers. It's not uncommon for these players to bet 10, 20 or 30 thousand dollars. The strategy here is that most of the pool is made up of people betting small amounts of money. These small bettors can't possibly cover enough horses in these multi-race events to have any chance. It would be sort of analogous to one of the small bettors hitting a jackpot on the slot machine. In a Pick 6 the big player can cover 30 horses in a pick six race for $15,625. Of course he won't win all the time, but when you are going after these big carryovers you do not have to win that often. One other method that some of the very best handicappers do to use their skills to make money is to enter handicapping contests. Although this sounds fun it would be hard to hold down a real job and travel around to these handicapping contests.


Okay the dirty little secret of how to be a professional thoroughbred handicapper is out, so go to work.

Oh you are like me; you do not have thousands or millions to bet or the time to travel to different handicapping contests.