A HORSE IS A HORSE, OF COURSE (WELL MAYBE NOT)
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN QUARTER HORSE AND THOROUGHBRED RACES
To be a good quarter horse handicapper you first need to forget a lot of what you know about betting thoroughbred races. This is really the good news because the factors that get eliminated from the quarter horse handicapping process are what makes thoroughbred handicapping the most difficult. Even better news is that most of the real handicappers around you at the racetrack will be using the factors they have learned through many years of handicapping thoroughbreds. This is where you will gain an advantage, because although they're using sound thoroughbred strategy they are playing a different game. We will discuss some different handicapping factors as it relates to quarter horse races.
“PACE MAKE THE RACE”
I know you have heard this a million times in thoroughbred handicapping and it is the most complicated factor to predict. Just when you think you have it figured out, no one runs the way you had it analysed. Some horse always seems to throw a monkey-wrench into the plan. Of course when it does work out exactly as you planned and the outcome is exactly as you predicted it is a thing of beauty and this is what keeps most of us going back. Now what if the pace was always as you anticipate, do you think it would make winning money easier? This answer is easy and is one of the key reasons making money at quarter horse races is more consistent. There is one pace in quarter horse racing and that is to break as fast as you can from the gate and run as hard as you can to the finish. Saying a horse is a closer is just a misnomer, he is only a horse that builds to his top speed more slowly. No quarter horse sits off the pace on purpose.
“CLASS IS SPEED AND SPEED IS CLASS”
When I was betting thoroughbreds, I would have definitely been classified as a class handicapper. In thoroughbred races class is definitely a factor that needs to be considered. It is something mysterious and hard to explain why a horse with inferior speed numbers performs better than his numbers should allow when dropped in class. Being a class handicapper, this was one of my highest hurdles to clear when I started betting quarter horses. In quarter horse racing speed is class and class is speed. In quarter horse racing it is not uncommon for a lightly raced horse to win a maiden claiming race and then next start, win an allowance race. I know this is something foreign to thoroughbred handicappers and frankly hard to believe, but this happens all the time and at big odds. If the quarter horse runs 20 flat in a 400 yard race, that is its class level. You will need to learn that speed is the only factor in determining class.
“CAN SHE RUN WITH BOYS”
This is another classic no-no of thoroughbreds racing. If I saw a filly or mare entered into a thoroughbred race when I was handicapping, I would immediately draw a line through her name and give her no shot. This is not the case in quarter horse racing and you will see many fillies and mares entered into open races and they win their fair share of the time. If she can run the appropriate time do not think twice about betting her. As with class, this is another huge shift in thinking that will be necessary to win at quarter horse racing.
“HAVE NOT SEEN YOU IN A WHILE”
Thoroughbreds need to run to build up their stamina to compete at their top level. Rarely would I bet a horse that had been off from the races more than 45 days. I am sure this is not uncommon among most thoroughbred handicappers. Even the superior thoroughbreds that have had a long layoff will generally perform poorly in his first race back. When evaluating extended layoffs with quarter horses the question more is why than how long. Because stamina is much less of a factor in quarter horse racing they tend to overcome long layoffs much better than thoroughbreds. All things being equal I would much rather my quarter horse have had an out in the last 30 days, but will not overlook the fastest horse going off the good odds regardless of the layoff. This is another way to take advantage of the thoroughbreds handicapping mind set that is prevalent at the track.
TRAINERS AND JOCKEYS
This is one factor that is probably as important in quarter horse racing is in thoroughbreds racing, but you should overlook this as is one of your factors. If your only goal is to win the most races then this is definitely a factor you should not overlook. My goal is to win more money and by betting the fastest horse regardless of jockey or trainer helps me reach this goal. The public at quarter horse tracks tend to over bet leading trainers and jockeys and in many cases horses with poor trainers or jockeys are massive overlays. Due to the lack of other easy information this is the one factor they tend to use more than at thoroughbred races. A thoroughbred with highest speed figures will be bet regardless of the trainer or jockey. Sometimes just staying on the horse and keeping the horse straight is all you need to do to get the fastest quarter horse to the line first. The one time I do pay attention to the trainer is when a horse is coming off a long layoff and even then without the proper odds I will pass on this play.
“WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY”
Bill Purcell once said “you are who you are”, and that ‘s the way it is in quarter horse racing. You hear the term “back class” in thoroughbred racing, but you will learn what a quarter horse has done lately means everything. This is not determined by where he finishes or what level he is running at, but by what times he is running. Remember what we said earlier that speed is class. The horse can run 5th or 6th against faster horses. We only care what time he ran and when he move into a race where his time can compete we jump on him. You noticed I never mentioned up or down in class or up or down levels. This is irrelevant , it only matter that he has the speed to compete in today’s races. The horse’s last time is the most important by far. You can excuse one race if the comments suggest he was interfered with, which is not that uncommon in quarter horse races. Remember it is hard to be interfered with if you break on top. Two bad races is more of a trend than bad luck and I will have a hard time betting a horse that has two non-competitive times in a row. In my NQHR Past Performances I only go back five races, I feel anything earlier than that is not useful in evaluating today’s race. One other point is that quarter horses can get good fast and do not overlook a race because it was unusually fast for this horse, more often than not he will follow it up with another strong performance and these types of horses will be a big share of your long shot winners.
Lynn Nichols
NQHR
“PACE MAKE THE RACE”
I know you have heard this a million times in thoroughbred handicapping and it is the most complicated factor to predict. Just when you think you have it figured out, no one runs the way you had it analysed. Some horse always seems to throw a monkey-wrench into the plan. Of course when it does work out exactly as you planned and the outcome is exactly as you predicted it is a thing of beauty and this is what keeps most of us going back. Now what if the pace was always as you anticipate, do you think it would make winning money easier? This answer is easy and is one of the key reasons making money at quarter horse races is more consistent. There is one pace in quarter horse racing and that is to break as fast as you can from the gate and run as hard as you can to the finish. Saying a horse is a closer is just a misnomer, he is only a horse that builds to his top speed more slowly. No quarter horse sits off the pace on purpose.
“CLASS IS SPEED AND SPEED IS CLASS”
When I was betting thoroughbreds, I would have definitely been classified as a class handicapper. In thoroughbred races class is definitely a factor that needs to be considered. It is something mysterious and hard to explain why a horse with inferior speed numbers performs better than his numbers should allow when dropped in class. Being a class handicapper, this was one of my highest hurdles to clear when I started betting quarter horses. In quarter horse racing speed is class and class is speed. In quarter horse racing it is not uncommon for a lightly raced horse to win a maiden claiming race and then next start, win an allowance race. I know this is something foreign to thoroughbred handicappers and frankly hard to believe, but this happens all the time and at big odds. If the quarter horse runs 20 flat in a 400 yard race, that is its class level. You will need to learn that speed is the only factor in determining class.
“CAN SHE RUN WITH BOYS”
This is another classic no-no of thoroughbreds racing. If I saw a filly or mare entered into a thoroughbred race when I was handicapping, I would immediately draw a line through her name and give her no shot. This is not the case in quarter horse racing and you will see many fillies and mares entered into open races and they win their fair share of the time. If she can run the appropriate time do not think twice about betting her. As with class, this is another huge shift in thinking that will be necessary to win at quarter horse racing.
“HAVE NOT SEEN YOU IN A WHILE”
Thoroughbreds need to run to build up their stamina to compete at their top level. Rarely would I bet a horse that had been off from the races more than 45 days. I am sure this is not uncommon among most thoroughbred handicappers. Even the superior thoroughbreds that have had a long layoff will generally perform poorly in his first race back. When evaluating extended layoffs with quarter horses the question more is why than how long. Because stamina is much less of a factor in quarter horse racing they tend to overcome long layoffs much better than thoroughbreds. All things being equal I would much rather my quarter horse have had an out in the last 30 days, but will not overlook the fastest horse going off the good odds regardless of the layoff. This is another way to take advantage of the thoroughbreds handicapping mind set that is prevalent at the track.
TRAINERS AND JOCKEYS
This is one factor that is probably as important in quarter horse racing is in thoroughbreds racing, but you should overlook this as is one of your factors. If your only goal is to win the most races then this is definitely a factor you should not overlook. My goal is to win more money and by betting the fastest horse regardless of jockey or trainer helps me reach this goal. The public at quarter horse tracks tend to over bet leading trainers and jockeys and in many cases horses with poor trainers or jockeys are massive overlays. Due to the lack of other easy information this is the one factor they tend to use more than at thoroughbred races. A thoroughbred with highest speed figures will be bet regardless of the trainer or jockey. Sometimes just staying on the horse and keeping the horse straight is all you need to do to get the fastest quarter horse to the line first. The one time I do pay attention to the trainer is when a horse is coming off a long layoff and even then without the proper odds I will pass on this play.
“WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY”
Bill Purcell once said “you are who you are”, and that ‘s the way it is in quarter horse racing. You hear the term “back class” in thoroughbred racing, but you will learn what a quarter horse has done lately means everything. This is not determined by where he finishes or what level he is running at, but by what times he is running. Remember what we said earlier that speed is class. The horse can run 5th or 6th against faster horses. We only care what time he ran and when he move into a race where his time can compete we jump on him. You noticed I never mentioned up or down in class or up or down levels. This is irrelevant , it only matter that he has the speed to compete in today’s races. The horse’s last time is the most important by far. You can excuse one race if the comments suggest he was interfered with, which is not that uncommon in quarter horse races. Remember it is hard to be interfered with if you break on top. Two bad races is more of a trend than bad luck and I will have a hard time betting a horse that has two non-competitive times in a row. In my NQHR Past Performances I only go back five races, I feel anything earlier than that is not useful in evaluating today’s race. One other point is that quarter horses can get good fast and do not overlook a race because it was unusually fast for this horse, more often than not he will follow it up with another strong performance and these types of horses will be a big share of your long shot winners.
Lynn Nichols
NQHR